The ENSO-neutral event is one of the most important climate phenomena because it can change circulation patterns of the global atmosphere. An ENSO-neutral event is one where neither El Nino or La Nina are present. However, there is an equal chance that ENSO-neutral (El Nino Southern Oscillation – Neutral) status will develop between January and March, and a 71% chance of an ENSO-neutral event occurring in February through April 2023. According to the most recent summary, La Nina is still present. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climate Prediction Center updates the Nina status on the second Thursday of every month. The good news is there have been signs that La Nina has started to weaken. Winter kill of the winter wheat crop would be another incentive for famers to market cattle and continue contraction of the cattle industry into the spring. Then temperatures dropped during the last week of December before there was adequate snowfall to protect crops from the cold. To begin with, the Southern winter wheat crop was damaged because of the drought. These conditions were among the top reasons we saw contraction in the cattle industry in 2022. were in regions where more than 40% of pasture and rangeland conditions were rated as poor to very poor. This has taken a toll on pasture and rangeland conditions in regions of the country with the highest concentrations of cattle. The West and Southern Plains experienced some of the worst drought conditions in recent history. This is largely due to the expectations for a smaller cattle inventory for the upcoming year.įor the third consecutive year, drought has plagued much of the U.S. ERS estimates 2023 production to slow year-over-year, dropping 7% to 26.4 billion pounds. The combination of increased cattle slaughter and higher average dressed weights should make 2022 a record year for production. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised estimates for fourth quarter beef production by 70 million pounds, to 28.4 billion pounds, due to higher expected cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. This is up 2 pounds from this time last year. will be looking at a 400,000-500,000 metric ton decrease in production in 2023 and will provide price support.ĭressed and live weights were also up for much of 2022, with the average live weight for November coming in at 1,384 pounds. If inventory drops between 4% and 5%, the U.S. Supplies of cattle will be tighter in the upcoming year, which may force packers to pay more to secure cattle and meet demand. Production has been aggressive through much of 2022 with packers taking advantage of profitable margins that may not be as easy to come by in 2023. Accumulated production was estimated to be 26.07 billion pounds, 2% higher than 2021, which was a record year for beef production. 20, ahead of the semi-annual inventory report mentioned earlier.īeef production for November 2022 was 2.42 million pounds, 2% higher than the same time in 2021. The next COF report will be released on Jan. This was mostly due to farmers facing higher feed costs, and extreme drought conditions, especially in the West and Southern Plains. This is an indicator that farmers are culling cattle and reducing herd size. Marketings of fed cattle outpaced placements of cattle on feed for much of 2022. This is a record high for November marketings since the survey began in 1996 and comes after a record low for cattle placed into feedlots in October. Marketings of fed cattle in November 2022 totaled 1.89 million head, 1% above the same time last year. Placements of cattle into feedlots in November were 1.93 million head, down 2% from the same time in 2021. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more were 11.7 million on Dec. The most recent Cattle on Feed (COF) report estimates that all cattle and calves on feed in U.S. 1 cattle inventory declined by 3% or more was in 1987. If the inventory comes in near 5% below 2021, the inventory would be the lowest since we approached 82.08 million in 1951. 1, 2021, the inventory of all cattle and calves in the Unites States would be the lowest since 2013. If the report estimates are 3.9% or more below Jan. Many industry experts are forecasting the inventory to be 4-5% below 2022, which was 2% less than the Jan. This inventory of cattle and calves in the United States will set the tone for 2023. This Market Intel is a deep dive into the 2023 cattle outlook, and what producers can do to position themselves for what lies ahead.Īll eyes will be on USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report, set for release on Jan. From high feed costs to the third consecutive year of drought, there was no shortage of complex obstacles, many with effects that will carry through well beyond 2023.
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